Selección entre multifondos de jubilación. Una nueva metodología y un caso de estudio / Selection between Multi-Funds for Retirement: A New Methodology and a Case Study
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29265/gypp.v26i1.212Palabras clave:
modelo discriminante, riesgo financiero, multifondos, AFP, cuestionario, planes de pensión, discriminant model, financial risk, multi-fund, Chilean pension system, survey, pension plansResumen
Resumen. Los efectos de la crisis financiera de 2008 dejaron en evidencia la necesidad de que la autoridad reguladora chilena implemente normativas e incentivos que reduzcan los impactos no esperados en las pensiones de las personas. En este estudio construimos un modelo que sugiere una alternativa de ahorro previsional específica para cada persona, de acuerdo con sus características individuales o perfil de riesgo. El modelo se basa en la técnica de análisis discriminante, y el aporte radica en ser el primer estudio que aplica dicha técnica científica en la selección de fondos de ahorro previsional. Los resultados muestran que la técnica puede ser implementada de un modo simple y económico, y que es capaz de predecir razonablemente la elección de los ahorrantes a un fondo de ahorro con sólo cuatro variables explicativas, y sin mayor pérdida en la capacidad de clasificación. El estudio provee una nueva herramienta práctica y valuable tanto para administradores de inversiones y ahorrantes, como para el diseño de herramientas públicas de gestión y monitoreo por parte de la autoridad reguladora.
Abstract. The effects of the financial crisis of 2008 made it evident the need for the Chilean regulatory authority implements regulations and incentives that reduce unexpected impacts on pensions of people. In this study we build a model that suggests an alternative specific savings for each person according to their individual characteristics or risk profile. The proposed model is based on the technique of discriminant analysis, and contribution lies in being the first study to apply this scientific technique in selecting savings or investment funds. The results show that the technique can be implemented in a simple and economical manner, and which is able to reasonably predict savers choosing an investment fund only four explanatory variables, without further loss in the ability of classification. The study provides a new practical and valuable tool for investment managers, savers, and also for the design of public management tools and monitoring by the regulatory authority.
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