Incumplimiento en el pago de impuestos: Intervención con el empleo de Nudges y normas sociales.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.60583/gypp.v33i1.8191Palabras clave:
morosidad, nudges, normas sociales, emprendedores, machine learningResumen
En esta investigación se analizó un conjunto de mensajes de recaudación para el pago de impuestos. En total, se evaluaron doce variaciones de los mensajes de cobro (normas sociales, simplificación, divulgación, compromiso previo, recordatorios y decisiones pasadas) y se determinó su efectividad. Los mensajes fueron transmitidos a microempresarios morosos en cuatro estados brasileños. A partir de una base de datos que contiene información sobre microempresarios morosos, se enviaron 250 000 mensajes de texto para hacer el cobro. Los datos se obtuvieron de la Secretaria Especial da Micro e Pequea Empresa (Sempe). Se utilizaron pruebas para analizar la diferencia entre medias y se utilizó una secuencia de regresión logística. Se utilizaron los widgets Random Forest, regresión logística y Naïve Bayes para definir la solidez del modelo predictivo de Machine Learning. Los resultados de la investigación indicaron que los formatos “simplificación”, “decisiones pasadas” y “alerta” no tuvieron ningún efecto en la lucha contra el incumplimiento. Sin embargo, al combinarlos con mensajes que aludan a normas sociales, los mensajes con el estilo de “decisiones pasadas” y “recordatorios” aumentaron el pago de la deuda. Los widgets empleados mostraron un ajuste excelente al modelo de machine learning. La herramienta Random Forest determinó que el modelo es robusto y adecuado para la función predictiva. Los resultados de la encuesta brindan un aporte a las políticas públicas, pues presentan una acción efectiva para reducir la morosidad tributaria. El uso de mensajes que apelan a las normas sociales puede adaptarse a otras situaciones, y se sugiere aplicarlo en futuras investigaciones.
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